Probabilistic forecast
Forecast expressed as a probability of exceeding thresholds (e.g., 30% chance stage > trigger).
Example Usage
"Issue a ‘watch’ when probability of exceedance crosses 20%."
Typical Units & Data
% probability
Related Keywords
Related Terms
Nowcasting
Very short-term (0–6 hour) forecasting using radar/satellite extrapolation and rapid-update models..
Forecasting & Early WarningQuantitative precipitation forecast (QPF)
Forecast of rainfall amounts over space/time from numerical weather prediction models..
Forecasting & Early WarningEnsemble forecast
Set of model runs with varied initial conditions/physics to represent uncertainty..
Forecasting & Early WarningLead time
Time between alert issuance and expected threshold exceedance/impact; drives response options..
Forecasting & Early WarningThreshold / trigger level
Pre-defined value that initiates a notification or action (stage, rainfall, tide, probability)..
Forecasting & Early WarningFlood warning levels (UK)
Standard categories (e.g., Flood Alert, Flood Warning, Severe Flood Warning) used to communicate urgency..
FloodWatch Resources
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